February 22nd 2023

$ES_F back to 4000, breakdown from bullish channel

Excellent follow-through today on levels that were sent on Friday and over the weekend. I had sent a notice out with this chart showing that if below 4056, target the red circle.

And now we have completed today’s cash session:

I’ve mentioned a couple of times now of the constant sell blocks coming through around 4155 and sell side pressure accelerated after the failure on Thursday to breakout over the 4155 level. Larger sellers again showed up, leading us towards 4000 today.

For tomorrow here is the economic calendar:

The FOMC meeting minutes at 2pm EST may impact the markets. I think its clear that at 4200, every possible good news has already been priced in, and this move on ES is a rejection of the 50% fib, a confirmation that the market is likely to retest the prior lows.

For tomorrow I’ll be watching the following levels: