JR28 Weekly Market Insights
Week of May 26th, 2025, thru May 30th, 2025
🗓️ JR28 Weekly Newsletter: May 26 – May 30
Note: U.S. markets are closed Monday (May 26) for Memorial Day. Expect lower volume and possible volatility around key data releases.
✨ Weekly Inspiration
Your edge isn’t just your strategy — it’s your discipline, your mindset, and your ability to stay calm when others panic.
🧠 Market Recap – Week of May 19–23
S&P 500: -2.7% Nasdaq: -2.5% Dow: -2.8% Russell 2000: -3.1%
Markets reversed course, hit by rising bond yields and renewed global trade fears.
Top Drivers:
50% Tariff on EU Imports: Trump’s new tariff triggered a global sell-off. EU vowed to respond.
China Trade Tensions Return: Tech tariffs back on the table unless firms shift U.S. production.
Yields Spike: 10-year hits 4.5% after weak Treasury auction.
Volatility Rises: VIX jumped to 22.29, its highest in over a month.
Economic Snapshot:
April CPI: 2.3% YoY, Core CPI: 2.8%
Pre-truce import surge caused port congestion and shipping cost spikes
Sentiment: Defensive. Caution rising as traders brace for global and Fed-related news.
📅 Upcoming Economic Events (May 26–30)
Mon: Markets Closed – Memorial Day
Tue: Durable Goods, Home Prices, Consumer Confidence
Wed: FOMC Minutes
Thu: Jobless Claims, Q1 GDP (2nd Est.)
Fri: PCE Index, Personal Income/Spending, Consumer Sentiment
🗣️ Fed Speakers
Tue: Kashkari Wed: Williams, Waller Thu: Daly
📈 Key Earnings
Tue: AZO, PDD | Wed: NVDA, CRM, HPQ, DKS | Thu: DELL, COST, MRVL, LI
💼 Trade Recap – Last Week
QQQ $530C (May 30):
In @ 1.98 → High 3.40 +71%
GOOGL $200C (Jan 2026):
In @ 6.50 → High 11.00 +69%
SPX $5950C (May 23):
In @ 2.40 → Out @ 3.30 +38%
SPY $530P (Jun 20):
In @ 2.36 → Out @ 3.33 +41%
CONL (Commons):
In @ 16.00 → High 28.00+ +75%
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📈 Index Forecast: Navigating SPX, QQQ & IWM
SPX Recap & Outlook
Last Week Recap:
We highlighted 6009 as the key bear pivot and warned of a potential 300pt drop if it held — and it did. SPX topped at 5968 before selling off sharply to 5767, nearly fulfilling the move.
This Week’s Gameplan:
🔹 6009 – Still the major pivot; holds weight as origin of this year’s big selloff
🔹 5762 – Key support zone for the week
Scenarios:
If 5762 holds, we could bounce back toward 5960–6009
If 5762 breaks, watch for moves toward 5646 → 5491 → 5336
📍 5762 = critical pivot to set the tone for the week.
QQQ Outlook
Last week we warned about 504 as the key level — QQQ pulled back to 505, holding support for now.
⚠️ The large unfilled gap at 491 remains a concern.
Watch for continued defense of the 504–505 zone this week.
If it fails, momentum could accelerate to fill the gap.
🎯 Still near all-time highs — stay tactical and trail stops.
IWM Outlook
IWM pulled back to 199, retesting key support.
We’re now watching the 210–214 downtrend zone — a break above could trigger a rally back to 221, where the major test lies.
📈 A clear break of 221 would signal small-cap strength and potentially a broad market breakout.
🌀 Stay alert for a rotation into small caps in the coming weeks.
⚙️ Stocks to Watch: Trade Setups
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