JR28 Weekly Market Insights

Week of April 14th, 2025, thru April 18th, 2025

JR28 Weekly Trading Newsletter: April 14 - April 18, 2025

---

📰 Market Recap – Volatility Unleashed

What a wild ride.

Last week kicked off with an aggressive gap down and sell-off, slicing through key support at SPX 5179 and plummeting toward 4835, not far from our downside target at 4818 (2022 high). Just when things looked broken, markets staged a violent reversal, reclaiming 5179 and ripping all the way back up to 5481 — all in the same week.

Volatility surged across the board, with the VIX spiking to an eye-watering high of 60.13, reflecting just how uncertain sentiment had become.

We highlighted this exact roadmap last week:

“If bulls reclaim 5179, we could rally back into the 5551–5638 zone for a right shoulder-type move. But if we remain under 5179, the door stays open to fall back toward 4818.”

That roadmap played out to the tick — first a flush to 4818, then a reclaim and squeeze higher.

---

🔍 Tesla: Idea Delivered

Our long-watch on Tesla (TSLA) from the 220–230 zone also played out beautifully.
We wrote:

“As long as 220–230 holds, this could be a good long… once some fear subsides.”

That setup produced a clean swing:

• Low: 214

• High: 274
  📈 That’s nearly a +28% move from the lows.

---

📊 SPX Plan Going Forward

While last week’s bounce was powerful, it stalled exactly at the 50% retracement of the entire move (5491). This becomes our key pivot.

• If bulls can clear and hold above 5491, we look to 5638, where major resistance and short setups may emerge.

• If 5491 continues to cap the rally, we could be forming a right shoulder in a developing Head & Shoulders pattern. A rollover here keeps the door open for another retest of 5179 and potentially lower.

🔑 SPX Levels to Watch:

• Support: 5179, 5336

• Pivot: 5491

• Resistance: 5638, 5762

---

🗓️ Economic Calendar – Short Week Alert

Friday is a market holiday (Good Friday) — so expect lighter volume Thursday.

Wednesday, April 16

• 8:30 AM: Retail Sales (Mar)

• 10:30 AM: Crude Oil Inventories

• 1:15 PM: Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Thursday, April 17

• 8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims

• 8:30 AM: Philly Fed Index (Apr)

---

💼 Earnings to Watch

Tuesday: $BAC, $C, $JNJ, $UAL
Wednesday: $ABT, $PGR
Thursday: $ALLY, NFLX 0.00%↑

---

⚠️ Sentiment Check: Fear & Greed Index

• Last Week: 4/100 – Extreme Fear

• This Week: 13/100 – Extreme Fear

We saw some recovery in sentiment, but the market remains firmly in fear territory.

⚠️ That means:

• Rips can be sharp and emotional.

• Fear-driven rallies often lack staying power unless supported by strong catalysts.

📌 Tread carefully — this environment rewards tactical setups and quick pivots.

---

✅ Top 5 Trade Highlights – April 7–11, 2025

• SPY $550P (Apr 9): 2.31 ➝ 70.00 → +2,931%

• TSLA $255C (Apr 11): 3.00 ➝ 12.00 → +300%

• NVDA $120C (May 16): 1.81 ➝ 4.15 → +129%

• SPY $555C (May 16): 4.02 ➝ 9.24 → +130%

• UVIX Commons: 30.00 ➝ 69.00 → +130%

🔥 Strong mix of options and commons delivering triple-digit returns across the board.

---

SPX

Failed breakout / 2b top is still the active dominant technical setup right now however there is the possibility of a head & shoulders forming, with the right shoulder being formed right now. 5638 for me IMO is the guide. If we are above this, then the bearish setup has concluded. If we are below this, bears still have a chance to continue this setup lower into 4500

QQQ & IWM

Failed breakout / 2b top on both has taken both of them back to major zones, the 2022 high and breakout point in 2024 for QQQ and the multi-year base on IWM.

CONTINUATION FROM LAST WEEK:
QQQ: Looking for longs against 408.71 for the right shoulder bounce.
(if you took longs here at these levels given last week you will see they were very close to the low, for now just need to raise stops.
IWM: Looking for longs against 173.39, tight stops.

---

Trade Ideas: Stocks to Watch

• Tesla (TSLA): No change, long bias continues as long as 220 holds for moves to 258, 275, 295, 322.