JR28 Weekly Market Insights

Week of March 17th, 2025 thru March 31st, 2025

JR28 Weekly Trading Newsletter: March 17 - March 21, 2025

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📰 Market Recap & Key Takeaways

Last week was a strong example of how elevated VIX levels and high implied volatility (IV) influence trading decisions. We focused more on commons versus options due to these conditions, and it paid off well. Here’s a look at some of the top trades from last week:

• NVDL Commons: Entry at $36, exit at $47 (+30.5% gain)

• TSLL Commons: Entry at $8.28, exit at $9.2 (+11.1% gain)

• INTC Commons: Entry at $20.75, exit at $24.05 (+15.9% gain)

These setups were all executed with a cautious approach to IV, favoring equities over options where premiums were inflated. As market conditions shift, we’ll continue adapting our strategy.

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📆 Economic Calendar - Key Events to Watch

Monday, March 17

• 08:30 AM ET - Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): Forecast 0.5% | Previous -0.4%

• 08:30 AM ET - Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): Forecast 0.7% | Previous -0.9%

Wednesday, March 19

• 09:30 AM ET - Crude Oil Inventories

• 02:00 PM ET - FOMC Economic Projections

• 02:00 PM ET - FOMC Statement

• 02:00 PM ET - Fed Interest Rate Decision (Expected 4.50%)

• 02:30 PM ET - FOMC Press Conference

Thursday, March 20

• 08:30 AM ET - Initial Jobless Claims (Forecast Pending)

• 08:30 AM ET - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar): Previous 18.1

• 10:00 AM ET - Existing Home Sales (Feb): Previous 4.08M

The highlight of the week is Wednesday's FOMC decision and press conference, which will dictate market sentiment for the upcoming sessions.

Tuesday, March 25

• 10:00 AM ET - CB Consumer Confidence (Mar): Forecast 98.3

• 10:00 AM ET - New Home Sales (Feb): Forecast 657K

Wednesday, March 26

• 08:30 AM ET - Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb): Previous 3.2%

Thursday, March 27

• 08:30 AM ET - GDP (QoQ) (Q4): Forecast 2.3%

Friday, March 28

• 08:30 AM ET - Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb): Forecast 2.6%

• 08:30 AM ET - Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb): Forecast 0.3%

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💰 Earnings to Watch

Wednesday:

• $FIVE (Five Below)

Thursday:

• $MU (Micron Technology)

• $NKE (Nike)

• $FDX (FedEx)

• $LEN (Lennar Corp)

Friday:

• $NIO (Nio Inc.)

• $CCL (Carnival Corp)

Earnings plays will depend on setups post-FOMC. Keep an eye on semiconductor names like MU, which could be impacted by broader tech sentiment.

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TRADE ALERTS:

For those of you not in the Discord (www.jr28trading.com) I highly encourage it as we cover a lot of the setups given here but we also alert LIVE trade ENTRIES and EXITS on Stocks, Options, Crypto & Futures.

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Technical Analysis

SPX Outlook & Key Levels

Last week, we flagged 5638 as a key breakdown level, warning that if it gave way, we'd likely see a move down toward 5551. The market overshot to 5504 before finding support and bouncing back to finish the week at 5638.

📊 Key Levels: 5638, 5873, 6009

• Above 5638 (higher likelihood) → Oversold/relief rally back to red line at 5873 and overshoot back to 5920, 6009.

• Below 5638 → Breakdown that takes us down into 5551

🔹 Bullish Setup: Longs against 5638 for a relief bounce move to 5873, 5920+.
🔻 Bearish Setup: Shorts against 5638 for a breakdown toward 5551, 5508, 5459, 5394, 5329

QQQ & IWM

No change in outlook—continuing the same setup given months ago.

QQQ: > 480 Pivot trigger for upside. bounce back to 494, 503 likely.
< 480 = more downside to 472, 463, 454, 442
IWM: > 210 pivot trigger for upside bounce back to 216 likely.
< 200 = more downside towards 193, 181

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Trade Ideas: Stocks to Watch

• Tesla (TSLA): TSLA election gap & earnings gap have been filled and we made a huge wick on the weekly. Typically in the past for TSLA this has marked a swing low and I think this 220-250 spot is a good add for a move back to 295-347. Can place stops there at the recent low.