JR28 Weekly Market Insights

June 2nd – June 6th, 2025

📬 JR28 Weekly Market Outlook

June 2nd – June 6th, 2025
“The edge isn't found in the noise. It's built in your process.”

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✨ Weekly Inspiration

"Your job isn’t to predict the future—it’s to prepare your edge for whatever it brings."
This week: Clarity over control. Process over prediction.

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⚠️ What Moved the Market in May 2025

Markets were volatile in May, driven by tariff headlines, inflation data, and a cautious Fed stance.

📈 Performance Recap:

• SPY: +6.28% QQQ: +9.18% IWM: +5.24%
  Tech led on AI/crypto optimism. Small caps rebounded late after lagging on trade concerns.

🔥 Key Drivers of Volatility

• 🇨🇳 China Tariffs: Trump’s May 30 accusation of trade violations (after April’s 145% tariff hike) triggered futures drop (S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%).

• 🇪🇺 EU Tariffs: 50% tariffs announced May 23 (effective June 1) hit global markets. Delay to July 9 (May 26) sparked a rally.

📈 May 12 Relief Rally: A 90-day China tariff pause drove Nasdaq +4.35%, SPX +3.26%.

📊 Economic Data Highlights

• CPI (Mid-May): 2.3%. Hot core reading sparked May 19 selloff (S&P -1%, Nasdaq -1.3%), quickly reversed by dip-buyers.

• PCE (Late May): Core 2.6% (in-line), Headline 2.1% (below forecast).
    → Week ending May 30: SPX +1.88%, QQQ +2.01%

🏦 Federal Reserve’s Cautious Stance

• May 7: Fed flagged sticky inflation + Q1 GDP -2.7% → Cut odds fell to 36.6%

• VIX held elevated after April’s spike to 52.33
  → Result: No cuts in sight, risk remained high

🧩 Other Market Influences

• May 28: Court overturned Trump tariffs → SPY +1.5%, QQQ +2%, IWM +1.9% premarket
    Later reinstated during appeal

• May 19: Coinbase added to S&P 500 → Boosted crypto/tech sentiment

• Macro Pressure:
    • GDP: -2.7% • 10Y Yield: 4.39% by May 16
    • Small caps pressured but recovered on tariff relief + retail flow

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📅 Upcoming Economic Events (June 2–6, 2025)

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📈 Key Earnings

• Tue (Jun 3): CrowdStrike (CRWD)

• Wed (Jun 4): MongoDB (MDB), Dollar Tree (DLTR)

• Thu (Jun 5): Lululemon (LULU)

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📈 Index Forecast: Navigating SPX, QQQ & IWM

SPX Recap & Outlook

Last Week Recap:
Our game plan: “If 5762 holds, we could bounce back toward 5960–6009.”
→ SPX opened above 5767 and rallied straight to 5942 — bounce confirmed.

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This Week’s Gameplan:
🔑 Key Level: 5866

• Above: Target 6009

• Below: Watch 5762, then open gap at 5691

QQQ Outlook

Holding above 504 keeps the trend bullish

• Above 504: ATH retest near 540

• Below: Gap fill likely toward 491

IWM Outlook

• Still inside prior week — neutral until a break

• 🔍 Watching 210–214 zone

  • Breakout above: Rally to 221

  • 221: Major resistance + trigger for small-cap strength

📌 A confirmed breakout above 221 could signal broad market rotation and upside momentum into June.

⚙️ Stocks to Watch: Trade Setups