JR28 Weekly Market Insights

Week of May 5th, 2025, thru May 9th, 2025

🗓️ JR28 Weekly Newsletter: May 5 – May 9th

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✨ Weekly Inspiration

"The future depends on what you do today." — Mahatma Gandhi

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📈 Big Tech Earnings Highlights

Apple (AAPL)

• Revenue: $95.4B (+5% YoY)

• EPS: $1.65 (vs. $1.62 expected)

• Services: +12% YoY

• iPhone Sales: -2.3% in China

• Tariff Impact: Estimated $900M cost increase

• Stock: Closed at $205.35 on May 2, down 3.7% post-earnings

Meta Platforms (META)

• Revenue: $42.3B (+13.6% YoY)

• EPS: $6.43 (vs. $5.23 expected)

• Ad Revenue: +13.3% YoY

• Daily Active Users: 3.35B (+4.4% YoY)

• AI Investment: Increased capital expenditure forecast to $64–$72B

• Stock: Closed at $597.02 on May 2, up 4.3% post-earnings

Microsoft (MSFT)

• Revenue: $70.1B

• EPS: $3.46 (vs. $3.35 expected)

• Azure Growth: +30% YoY (down from 40% last quarter)

• AI & Cloud Investment: $14.9B in Q1 capital expenditures

• Stock: Closed at $435.28 on May 2, up 2.3% post-earnings

Amazon (AMZN)

• Revenue: $155.7B (+9% YoY)

• EPS: $1.35 (up 38%)

• North America Operating Margin: Record 4.4%

• Tariff Mentions: 17 times during earnings call

• Stock: Closed at $189.98 on May 2, down 0.1% post-earnings

📊 Broader Market Context

• Market Impact: The combined market cap of these four tech giants exceeds $9 trillion, accounting for ~19% of the S&P 500 and 30% of the Nasdaq 100. Their earnings significantly influence broader market sentiment.

• AI and Tariffs: AI investments remain a core growth driver, with Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon increasing data center spending. However, tariffs pose risks, especially for Apple (hardware-heavy) and Amazon (e-commerce).

• Investor Sentiment: Meta and Microsoft outperformed expectations, boosting their stocks, while Apple and Amazon faced headwinds from China exposure and tariff concerns.

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🔎 SPX Recap

🔹 S&P 500 (SPX)

Last week, the S&P 500 (SPX) began at 5,529, dipped to 5,433, and then rallied to close at 5,686 on May 2, 2025, aligning with the anticipated support at 5,491 and target of 5,646.

This week, attention turns to the 5,646 level. A decisive move above this resistance could trigger short-covering rallies. However, if the breakout fails and the index falls back below 5,646, it may signal a bearish reversal, potentially leading to a decline toward the 5,280 support zone.

**Note that last week we saw a fast flush below 5491 to trigger stops of longs, before ripping higher to 5646 in a failed breakdown. This week, we should be cautious and observe if we see the opposite, which is a fast rip above 5646 to trigger stops of shorts, before selling off into 5280.

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📅 Economic Calendar: Week of May 5–9, 2025

Monday, May 5

• 09:45 AM ET: S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)

• 10:00 AM ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

• 10:00 AM ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Apr)

Tuesday, May 6

• 01:00 PM ET: 10-Year Note Auction

Wednesday, May 7

• 10:30 AM ET: Crude Oil Inventories

• 02:00 PM ET: FOMC Statement

• 02:00 PM ET: Fed Interest Rate Decision

• 02:30 PM ET: FOMC Press Conference

Thursday, May 8

• 08:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims

• 01:00 PM ET: 30-Year Bond Auction

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📈 Earnings Calendar: Week of May 5–9, 2025

Monday, May 5

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

• Ford Motor Company (F)

Tuesday, May 6

• Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

• Rivian Automotive (RIVN)

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

• Upstart Holdings (UPST)

• Lucid Group (LCID)

Wednesday, May 7

• Uber Technologies (UBER)

• The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

• Carvana Co. (CVNA)

• DoorDash (DASH)

• Occidental Petroleum (OXY)ShopifyMotivatesx

Thursday, May 8

• Shopify (SHOP)

• Peloton Interactive (PTON)

• The Trade Desk (TTD)

• Coinbase Global (COIN)

• Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA)

• Affirm Holdings (AFRM)

• Crocs (CROX)

• Cloudflare (NET)

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📈 Trade Recap: April 2025

Win-Loss Summary:

• Total Trades: 27

• Wins: 25

• Losses: 2

• Win Rate: 92.59%

• Average Return: 213.85%

Highlights:

• SPY $550P (Apr 9): Entry at $2.31, Exit at $70.00, Return: 2930.30%

• SPY $514C (Apr 22): Entry at $2.32, Exit at $14.16, Return: 510.34%

• AAPL $200C (May 16): Entry at $4.00, Exit at $18.30, Return: 357.50%

• TSLA $255C (Apr 11): Entry at $3.00, Exit at $12.00, Return: 300.00%

• TSLA $325C (May 16): Entry at $2.43, Exit at $6.50, Return: 167.49%

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QQQ & IWM

Watching potential head & shoulders developing on QQQ. IWM basically flat for the past 3 years

QQQ: I gave 408.71 as the long spot, we are now at 488 and close to forming the right shoulder. Urge caution if 468 gives up, raise the stops, they should be around 468 now.

IWM: I gave 173.39 as the long spot, we are now at 200 and close to overhead resistance of 200 zone. Raise stops to 194.

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📈 Stocks to Watch: Trade Setups