JR28 Weekly Market Insights

Week of March 3rd, 2025

JR28 Weekly Trading Newsletter: March 3 - March 7, 2025

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Market Recap & February Seasonality

February's historical seasonality played out once again, with the market seeing a pullback in the second half of the month. This seasonal dip led to a decrease in total YTD returns, with the S&P 500 ($SPX) now up only 1.24% YTD, while Nasdaq ($NDX) has dipped to -0.61% YTD.

A major technical breakdown occurred last week with the loss of the 6009 SPX pivot level—a key area that has been highlighted for weeks. This level acted as a crucial inflection point, and its failure led to a sharp decline, confirming our bearish outlook. The move lower took SPX to 5837, just above our initial downside target of 5873, with 5638 remaining in play if selling pressure continues.

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Economic Data Calendar

Monday, March 3

• 09:45 - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

• 10:00 - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

• 10:00 - ISM Manufacturing Prices (Feb)

Wednesday, March 5

• 08:15 - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)

• 09:45 - S&P Global Services PMI (Feb)

• 10:00 - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

• 10:00 - ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Feb)

• 10:30 - Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, March 6

• 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, March 7

• 08:30 - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb)

• 08:30 - Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)

• 08:30 - Unemployment Rate (Feb)

• 11:00 - Fed Monetary Policy Report

• 12:30 - Fed Chair Powell Speaks

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Earnings Calendar

Monday: $OKTA
Tuesday: $TGT, $CRWD, $BBY, $BOX, $JWN
Wednesday: $ANF, $MRVL, $ZS
Thursday: $JD, AVGO 0.00%↑ , $COST, $M

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Last Week’s Trades Recap

• NVDA $145C MAR 21: In at $3.40, out at $4.20 (23.53% gain)

• QQQ $530C MAR 7: In at $2.20, out at $2.83 (28.64% gain)

• SPY $580P MAR 7: In at $1.67, out at $5.64 (237.13% gain)

• QQQ (Nasdaq ETF): Warned about a likely retest of 494-503 due to a failed breakout (FBO). Nasdaq sold off sharply from 529 to 496, confirming our view.

• IWM (Russell 2000 ETF): Stated that below 216, downside targets were 212 and 203. Price action played out as expected, with a move down to 210.

• SPX (S&P 500 Index): Warned that a failure at 6009 would trigger a bearish move to 5873 and 5638. Price sold off to 5837, nearly hitting our first downside target.

• TSLA (Tesla): Highlighted that a loss of 347 would lead to a breakdown to 275. The stock dropped from 347 to 273, aligning with our technical outlook.

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Outlook for the Week Ahead

• The market is showing clear weakness after losing key technical levels. SPX remains vulnerable below 6009, with downside targets at 5730 and 5638 if selling persists.

• Nasdaq ($NDX) and QQQ need to reclaim 524+ to shift momentum back to the bulls. Otherwise, further weakness down to 485-490 is possible.

• The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday will be the key catalysts this week, determining whether we see a relief bounce or continuation of downside.

• Watch for potential oversold bounces, but until we see a strong reclaim of lost levels, the trend remains bearish in the short term.

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TRADE ALERTS:

For those of you not in the Discord (www.jr28trading.com) I highly encourage it as we cover a lot of the setups given here but we also alert LIVE trade ENTRIES and EXITS on Stocks, Options, Crypto & Futures.

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Technical Analysis

SPX Outlook & Key Levels

Same as last week: Continue to use 6009 as a guide. Below 6009 bears have the ball and if 6009 fails from below (acts as resistance) then selling pressure can continue towards 5638.

📊 Key Levels: 6009–6032

• Above 6009–6032 → Bullish continuation to 6150+, possible extension to 6200+ .

• Below 6009 → Failed breakout, bearish trigger down to 5920, 5873, and ultimately 5638.

🔹 Bullish Setup: Longs against 6009 for a continuation move to 6200+.
🔻 Bearish Setup: Shorts against 6009 for a breakdown toward 5638

IWM & QQQ

No change in outlook—continuing the same setup given months ago.

IWM: Longs over 226 targeting ath
Shorts below 216 targeting 212, 203 (failed breakout)
QQQ: Longs over 494 targeting 553
**warning possible FBO occurring that can retest 404-503.

Note that QQQ is just above the 200dsma currently at 491.

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Trade Ideas: Stocks to Watch

• Tesla (TSLA): TSLA still has the election gap left unfilled at 255.28 and an earnings gap at 218.72 which should act as support the first time if tested. However, for the ideal bullish scenario, this 273.60 would have been the low. Longs against 273.60 are ok, however if 273.60 falls, the gap likely gets filled.