JR28 Weekly Market Insights

Week of February 3rd, 2024

Feb 01, 2025

∙ Paid

JR28 Weekly Trading Newsletter: February 3 - February 7

Return of Volatility: Trump Tariffs & Earnings Shake Up Markets

Volatility made a strong return last week as fresh Trump tariff headlines reignited uncertainty in the markets. We kicked off the week with large gap-downs in both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX), setting a negative tone early on and ending the week in the red.

For context, the market's reaction echoed a similar dynamic seen during Trump’s first term, particularly during the China trade war in 2018-2019, where trade headlines caused frequent market swings, increased volatility, and led to both sharp pullbacks and powerful rallies on positive or negative developments.

While tariffs create uncertainty, they also serve as catalysts for sector rotation, impacting companies with international exposure the most.

Earnings Reactions: Mixed Bag Across the Board

Tesla (TSLA): Ripped higher post-earnings, but overall, still stuck in consolidation
Microsoft (MSFT): Sold off following earnings.
Meta (META): Ripped higher
Apple (AAPL): Gapped up big post-earnings but completely faded on Friday, erasing all gains.

January Performance Recap

Despite last week's pullback, markets posted solid gains to start the year:
📈 SPX: +2.70%
📈 NDX: +2.22%
📈 RUT: +2.58%
📈 TLT: +0.49%

Key Events This Week

📅 Monday
🕘 09:45 – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
🕙 10:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
🕙 10:00 – ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jan)

📅 Tuesday
🕙 10:00 – JOLTS Job Openings (Dec)

📅 Wednesday
🕗 08:15 – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
🕘 09:45 – S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
🕙 10:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
🕙 10:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jan)
🕥 10:30 – Crude Oil Inventories

📅 Thursday
🕣 08:30 – Initial Jobless Claims

📅 Friday
🕣 08:30 – Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) (Jan)
🕣 08:30 – Unemployment Rate (Jan)
🕣 08:30 – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)

Earnings Calendar

Tuesday: PYPL, SPOT, CMG, PFE, SNAP, GOOG
Wednesday: F, QCOM, DIS
Thursday: LLY, RBLX

Trade Idea Recap

🔹 AAPL $260 MAY 16 – Alerted entry at 1.84, ran all the way up to 7.45 📈
🔹 SPY $610C JAN 29 – Entry 1.84, exited 2.86 for a quick intraday trade
🔹 BABA $100C MAR 21 – Entered 2.52, trimmed 6.35
🔹 BABA long signal – Given at 80, now cleared 100 🚀

Final Thoughts

With volatility back and earnings season still in play, opportunities will be plentiful—but expect more whipsaw action as the market digests macro data, FOMC guidance, and political headlines. Stay nimble, and let’s capitalize on the moves!

TRADE ALERTS:

For those of you not in the Discord (www.jr28trading.com) I highly encourage it as we cover a lot of the setups given here but we also alert LIVE trade ENTRIES and EXITS on Stocks, Options, Crypto & Futures.

Technical Analysis

SPX Analysis:

Key Levels: 6009-6032

Watching this 6009-6032 as a key level for the next week (same as prior week). If we are above it, then the breakout is active and we can continue higher into 6150+. If we are below it, then this turns into a bearish failed breakout with a trigger to 5638.

Bullish Setups:
1. Longs against 6009 for continuation to 6200+

Bear Setups:
1. A failure again at 6009 would be a failed breakout with a trigger down towards 5638. A loss of 6009 level is your warning that the bearish trade begins