JR28 Weekly Market Insights

Week of February 10th, 2024

JR28 Weekly Trading Newsletter: February 10 - February 14

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Recent Market Recap

The markets reacted negatively to earnings from major mega-cap stocks, with TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN all selling off post-earnings. Despite an overall strong uptrend in January, earnings disappointments and macroeconomic concerns have led to increased volatility.

Last week's price action mirrored the previous week: we started with a gap down, saw a strong rally throughout the week, only to face a sell-off on Friday due to renewed concerns over trade tariffs. This choppy action highlights the importance of managing risk and staying adaptable in the current market environment.

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Key Economic Events for the Upcoming Week

Tuesday, February 13:

• 10:00 AM ET - Fed Chair Powell Testifies

Wednesday, February 14:

• 8:30 AM ET - Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)

• 8:30 AM ET - CPI (YoY) (Jan)

• 8:30 AM ET - CPI (MoM) (Jan)

• 10:00 AM ET - Fed Chair Powell Testifies

Thursday, February 15:

• 8:30 AM ET - Initial Jobless Claims

• 8:30 AM ET - PPI (MoM) (Jan)

Friday, February 16:

• 8:30 AM ET - Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

• 8:30 AM ET - Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

Market participants will closely watch Powell's testimony and the CPI/PPI data for insights into the Fed's next move on interest rates.

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Earnings Reports to Watch

Monday: MCD
Tuesday: SHOP, KO, HUM, BP, MAR, SMCI, UPST, DASH, LYFT, GILD
Wednesday: VRT, CVS, RDDT, HOOD, CSCO, MGM
Thursday: DDOG, COIN, CROX, ABNB, TWLO, ROKU, PANW
Friday: MRNA

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Trade Recap: Last Week’s Plays

• NVDA 140C MAR 21 - Bought at $3.70, ran to $6.37, still holding.

• SPY $585P FEB 21 - Bought at $1.91, took partial profits at $5.55 and $6.47, still holding a few contracts.

• BABA $110C MAR 21 - Bought at $2.60, ran over $6, still holding.

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Outlook & Strategy for the Week Ahead

• Volatility & Economic Data Sensitivity: With CPI and PPI releases this week, expect heightened volatility, particularly in indices and rate-sensitive sectors.

• Earnings Plays: SMCI, UPST, and RDDT have high implied volatility and could present strong post-earnings moves.

• Key Levels to Watch: SPY needs to hold last week's lows to maintain bullish structure; a break could accelerate downside moves.

With Powell speaking twice and crucial economic data releases, this week could set the tone for the next big market move. Stay nimble and trade smart!

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TRADE ALERTS:

For those of you not in the Discord (www.jr28trading.com) I highly encourage it as we cover a lot of the setups given here but we also alert LIVE trade ENTRIES and EXITS on Stocks, Options, Crypto & Futures.

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Technical Analysis

SPX Analysis:

Key Levels: 6009-6032

Watching this 6009-6032 as a key level for the next week (same as 2 prior weeks). If we are above it, then the breakout is active, and we can continue higher into 6150+. If we are below it, then this turns into a bearish failed breakout with a trigger to 5638.

Bullish Setups:
1. Longs against 6009 for continuation to 6200+

Bear Setups:
1. A failure again at 6009 would be a failed breakout with a trigger down towards 5920, 5873 and ultimately 5638. A loss of 6009 level is your warning that the bearish trade begins

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IWM 0.00%↑
Possible failed breakout however we are bouncing off this downtrend line so this could be the start of the rally to 270+. Ultimately, we are still chopping in this same 214-226 range for almost a year now.

• Bullish: Above 226, we can re-long targeting a move back to ATH.

• Bearish: Below 216, watch for a potential drop to 199.