Excellent action today, we discussed that a close below 4124 would likely see a retest of the 4034-4056 area and sure enough the LOD was 4055.75.
In today’s session we indeed saw 4056 level supported and we finished the session around 4087, and we left an unfilled gap on SPY 0.00%↑ at 408.14. This is, the first time that we have 2 closes below the bullish channel that was created back on that 3810 breakout and has been moderating the price action since the start of January. Technically speaking it is still in a battle stage as if bulls were to reclaim 4100 on Tuesday (markets are closed on Monday) then this would have been a bear trap and we are setting up for 4223-4256.
Some targets from the last newsletter were met today as well, with AAPL finding a LOD at 150.85
And then a bounce spot on TSLA at 198.02
For next week I will be again watching the 4056 & 4095 levels on ES.
For further downside to 4000, I will need to see ES fall below 4034. It becomes more and more likely with a few closes below this 4085 area.
For upside I will need to see bulls reclaim 4100 on Tuesday and hold above it, which would signal a major bear trap and start a rally back into 4130. Over 4130 opens door to 4155 and 4205.
In summary:
ES > 4100 target 4130 A close above 4130 can take us to 4155, 4205, 4223 (weekly levels)
ES < 4034 target 4000. A close below 4000 can take us to 3950 and 3914 orderflow levels.
I’ll also be watching the following tickers and setups
SPY 0.00%↑
408.78 pivot
→ Below pivot target 406.61 and 403.75. Overshoot to 400.67 if 403.75 falls.
→ Above pivot target 410.56 and 411.58. Overshoot to 413.75 and potential breakout if 413.75 is taken out
TSLA 0.00%↑
198.02 pivot
→ Below pivot target 194, 190. Below 190 look for 185, 175.60
→ Above pivot target 204, 210. Above 210 look for 221.26-223.71
AAPL 0.00%↑
153.56 pivot
→ Below pivot target 152.42 (8ema) then 150.73. Overshoot is 200SMA 147.45, that’s more likely if there is a big sell and if we are ready to drop below 4000 on ES.
→ Above pivot target 159.54
META 0.00%↑
170.37 LIS
Above LIS target 180.65, overshoot of 185
GOOGL 0.00%↑
92.67 LIS
Above LIS target 96.33, 99.44, overshoot of 103.69
AMZN 0.00%↑
97.94 pivot
→ Above pivot target 99.3, 102.53
→ Below pivot target 94.57, 93.59
NFLX 0.00%↑
342.44 pivot
→ Above pivot target 351.91, 355.45
→ Below pivot target 331.62, 329.14
Have a wonderful long weekend!
-Jovan