Hi everyone!
Please note that this weekend and next the newsletter will be brief - as I am away on vacation.
Week over week I’ve mentioned SPX making new highs and the likely move into 5555-5638. This week we finally entered that zone, hitting 5570, and marking an impressive 35.74% increase from its October lows. It's worth noting that 5179 remains the pivotal point for the market, and there simply is no real bearish setup yet above that level. Every week bears continue to try to time the top of the market instead of going with the momentum already established and WAITING for a bearish setup to appear. Remaining cautiously optimistic, it's crucial to acknowledge that as long as we stay above 5179, a bearish sentiment is unwarranted. However, should we breach this level, a short position might be considered.
SPX Analysis:
Key Levels: 5494
Bullish Trajectory: For further bullish continuation, bulls need to continue to hold over 5494 to keep today’s breakout going. Above this level we can continue higher into 5638.73 the 1.618 fib extension. It should be noted that the entry here is not to chase long, but to re-enter on a failed breakdown, if any.
Bear Trajectory: Below 5494 we retest 5434 and can setup for a gap fill of 5375.
Summary:
Bulls remain in control in the overall picture and in breakout mode over 4494. However, if we were to drop below 4494, we could setup for a gap fill at 5375 and test the bottom of the wedge. Suggestion if wanting to buy dips is to wait for a failed breakdown for a re-entry long which could happen near the gap fill 5375.
Longer term, there is no “swing” short case yet unless 5179 where to fall. Below 5179 we would be swinging shorts as there would be a large failedbreakout to trade. For now, we are in an obvious uptrend with consistent higher highs and higher lows.
IWM 0.00%↑
No participation in rally from IWM - still watching this potential H&S. Needs to continue to hold above 200 to invalidate.
QQQ 0.00%↑
Despite the rising wedge bulls pushed it higher attempting a breakout and a tap of the 1.618 extension at 494.78. As mentioned, SPY/SPX is still below the 1.618 extension and it could become the next target for it.
TLT 0.00%↑
Did a retest and bounced - could have been a fake out move. If it starts to clear 95 next week, this starts the breakout into 100, 108.
NVDA 0.00%↑
Needs to overcome this 129-130 area for a move into ATH. There is alot of call activity but if this fails to get over 129 it can retest 122
TSLA 0.00%↑
A beautiful and perfect move straight to the DTL. Personally I think it needs to take a breather, to reset indicators - but if it starts to close over 256 it can head into 285 and 315 next.
TRADE ALERTS:
For those of you not in the Discord (www.jr28trading.com) I highly encourage it as we cover a lot of the setups given here but we also alert LIVE trade ENTRIES and EXITS on Stocks, Options, Crypto & Futures.
FUTURES TRADING:
There is a current wave of futures trading with prop firms, so I have been sharing a weekly newsletter for NQ for subscribers.
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Last week we sent this out to our subscribers:
We were very clear and stated “We are currently ping ponging between 20240 on the upside and 19763 on the downside with 19915 being the base. Whichever of these sides gives up likely leads to a 500+pt run. Above 20240 = long to target 20650, Below 19763 = short to target 19230”
Well, we got a huge move and an easy long once 240 was taken out all the way into 650.
Here is the economic calendar for next week:
Have a wonderful weekend!
Wishing you a successful and profitable trading week ahead!
Best regards,
Jovan