Week of June 12th, 2023

$SPY failed breakout?

For the past several weeks I outlined a path to 4300 on SPY and last week I shifted the tone and put a short bias and a 4309 LIS on ES. While we briefly did go above it we did not manage to close above so far. This will continue to be my guide for this upcoming week. However please note that due to the rolling of June ES contracts, the levels will be slightly different. We can focus on SPX directly for this upcoming week to avoid confusion.

I have now re-iterated this a couple of times but it is that important that I must keep saying it over and over so you do not get caught up in the bullish euphoria. It’s important in times like these to keep focused on the broader perspective. While it may seem “bullish” you need to keep in mind that we are just a typical downtrend, lower highs and lower lows. And, while we did put in a higher low technically, we have not yet put in a higher high in the bigger picture. See below the SPY 0.00%↑ weekly chart:

(I am currently mobile out of the country without access to my TOS)

The past 12 months show a trading range between 360-430 and it is very premature to be calling this a new bull market. The market makers have certainly done a great job at causing a shift in the masses to think that the worst is behind us and that we have now *started* a bull market. This is flashing across CNN/CNBC, social media and other financial networks. At the same time, we see overwhelming bullish sentiment, overbought technicals and eurozone going into recession. A fed pause is now expected, despite markets making it easy for fed to continue hiking (is it on purpose?).

SPY 0.00%↑ has now filled the gap of the August selloff and closed above however it has left several unfilled gaps below at 422.92 and 396.49 which will eventually be filled.

We had some amazing calls in the discord this past month where we alerted almost the perfect entry on Tesla with a TSLA $180C JUN 16 which had an entry of 5.72 and ran over 70+ per contract. We also had others such as AMZN $110C JUN 16 at 1.3 entries that ran over 20+ and we had SPY 425C JUL 21 which ran from 2 to 8+.

We continue to see some quality setups for the weeks and months to come which are shared with paid subscribers and in the discord. You can join the discord at (jmoptiontrading.com)

Here is the calendar for next week:

For this upcoming week I will be watching the following setups and levels: