Week of June 17th, 2024
SPX reaches new all-time highs following CPI and FOMC announcements, alongside a significant week for $AAPL
Hi everyone!
SPX has soared to unprecedented all-time highs, marking an impressive 33% increase from its October lows. In the chart provided above, you'll notice a promising rising wedge formation, suggesting a potential ascent towards the range of 5555-5638, amidst a gradual, low-volume summer uptrend leading up to the elections. It's worth noting that 5179 remains the pivotal point, serving as the steadfast control level for weeks. Remaining cautiously optimistic, it's crucial to acknowledge that as long as we stay above 5179, a bearish sentiment is unwarranted. However, should we breach this level, a short position might be considered. Yet, as it stands, the trajectory undeniably favors further upward movement, at least for the time being. As SPX reaches major resistance it’s not a bad idea to keep in mind that the next two weeks of the month are usually weak before the summer melt up.
Last week I mentioned in our analysis of SPX:
“As long as 5264 holds the BTD routine likely continues to work higher into 5457+.”
You can see here that this has just been one direction since reclaiming 5264 straight into 5447, just 10 points away from my target.
SPX Analysis:
Key Levels: 5434 & 5341
Bullish Trajectory: For further bullish continuation, bulls need to close over 5434 to stage the next leg into 5494-5510.
Bear Trajectory: Unless bulls overcome 5434, we could see a sell towards 5386 first stop and an attempt to close the gap at 5375. If 5375 were to fall then we could see a retest of the breakout at 5341 and below that is 5311.
Summary:
Bulls remain in clear control above 5179. There is a breakout active from 5341 and a breakaway gap at 5375. For continuation to 5500, bulls need to overcome 5434.
IWM 0.00%↑
Despite very bullish weeks for SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑, IWM 0.00%↑ has not had the same direction and instead has been forming a head & shoulders and now below that critical 200 line. It needs to overcome 200 next week or else this likely sell to 194 to setup the neckline.
QQQ 0.00%↑
Similar to SPY, fresh all time highs within a rising wedge. However while SPY has reached its 1.618 extension, QQQ has not, and both are at major resistances. For next week a pullback may be likely along with June seasonality.
TLT 0.00%↑
Weekly breakout for TLT.
TRADE ALERTS:
For those of you not in the Discord (www.jr28trading.com) I highly encourage it as we cover a lot of the setups given here but we also alert LIVE trade ENTRIES and EXITS on Stocks, Options, Crypto & Futures.
FUTURES TRADING:
There is a current wave of futures trading with prop firms so I will start to post levels for ES instead of SPX as well as NQ but this will go out on the weekly newsletter on Sundays.
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Last week we sent this out to our subscribers:
We gave the long signal to our subscribers as long as over 19110. This led to a 600 point rally in one directional action.
A new updated plan for this upcoming week will follow on Sunday.
Sentiment Check
Incredibly despite being at all-time highs the Fear & Greed Index is showing us currently in “fear".” Funds also tracked record outflows last week.
Here is the economic calendar for next week:
A separate newsletter will be sent tomorrow with the setups I am watching for next week to paid subscribers.
Have a wonderful weekend!
Wishing you a successful and profitable trading week ahead!
Best regards,
Jovan