Hi everyone!
SPX another week another new high, reaching 5523 and marking an impressive 34.60% increase from its October lows. In the chart provided above, you'll notice a promising rising wedge formation, suggesting a potential ascent towards the range of 5555-5638, amidst a gradual, low-volume summer uptrend leading up to the elections. It's worth noting that 5179 remains the pivotal point, serving as the steadfast control level for weeks. Remaining cautiously optimistic, it's crucial to acknowledge that as long as we stay above 5179, a bearish sentiment is unwarranted. However, should we breach this level, a short position might be considered. Yet, as it stands, the trajectory undeniably favors further upward movement, at least for the time being.
Last week I gave a bullish bias above 5434 to retest 5500.
You can see here that bears could not get us below 5434 even for a tick, so we were bound to retest 5500. We then put in a new high and sold off sharply putting in a potential failed breakout.
SPX Analysis:
Key Levels: 5434
Bearish divergence on daily / potential failed breakout
Bullish Trajectory: For further bullish continuation, bulls need to continue to hold over 5434. If 5434 is defended, then bulls can retest the highs again.
Bear Trajectory: Below 5434 opens the door to the gap fill at 5375 and bottom of the wedge near 5325
Summary:
Bulls remain in control in the overall picture however we have wicked near the top of the wedge and can see some pullback into 5325 before continuation. Suggestion if wanting to buy dips is to wait for a failed breakdown for a re-entry long which could happen near the gap fill 5375 or near wedge bottom at 5320.
IWM 0.00%โ
Still watching this potential H&S - need to get a few weekly closes above 200 to invalidate this and have small caps join in the summer melt up.
QQQ 0.00%โ
Another rejection at top of wedge, likely good spot for a rest / retest of bottom of wedge
TRADE ALERTS:
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Last week we sent this out to our subscribers:
We were very clear and stated โFor next week I will continue to look at 19915 as the main level of importance. If we are above it, then there will be a tendency to continue higher within the megaphone and potentially retest 20150-20240. However, if 19915 falls we could see another 150-200pt leg down into 19763 and 19680.โ
You can see in this past weekโs price action that we not only bottom ticked it but we top ticked it as well:
A new updated plan for this upcoming week will follow over the weekend for subscribers.
Here is the economic calendar for next week:
A separate newsletter will be sent with individual trade setups for next week to paid subscribers.
Have a wonderful weekend!
Wishing you a successful and profitable trading week ahead!
Best regards,
Jovan